Should Thomas Tuchel Have Been Given His New Contract by the FA?

On Thursday morning, the Football Association announced that Thomas Tuchel had signed a new contract extending his tenure as England head coach through to the end of Euro 2028. His original 18-month deal, a deliberately short-term arrangement designed to cover the World Cup cycle, would have expired this summer. Now, the German is committed for another two-and-a-half years, taking him through a home European Championship that will culminate in a final at Wembley.

The timing was no accident. With Manchester United, Real Madrid and Tottenham Hotspur all searching for managers this summer, and a host of elite coaches approaching the end of their contracts, the FA moved quickly to remove Tuchel's name from the carousel. FA chief executive Mark Bullingham described the decision as a "natural evolution," pointing to England's flawless qualifying campaign eight wins from eight, zero goals conceded as evidence that Tuchel is the right man for the long term.

But for coaches and analysts watching closely, this decision is far more nuanced than it appears on the surface. The FA has been here before. And the parallels with previous premature contract extensions, most notably Fabio Capello's ahead of the 2010 World Cup raise uncomfortable questions about whether this was the right call at the right time.

The Context: Why Now?

To understand the FA's urgency, you need to look at the managerial landscape across European football.

This summer promises to be one of the most frenzied periods of managerial movement in recent memory. Manchester United are searching for a permanent appointment after Ruben Amorim's sacking in January. Real Madrid need a new head coach after Xabi Alonso's departure. Tottenham have just sacked Thomas Frank. Crystal Palace, Fulham and Bournemouth all have managers approaching the end of their contracts. Meanwhile, the likes of Mauricio Pochettino, Carlo Ancelotti and Didier Deschamps will all be out of contract after the World Cup.

In that context Tuchel, a Champions League winner with Chelsea, a serial title winner with PSG and Bayern Munich, and a coach who had explicitly left the door open to returning to club football was always going to be a prime target. The FA knew that every week without an extension increased the risk of a top club making a formal approach.

The decision to act now was, in Bullingham's words, about ensuring Tuchel was "not part of what is likely to be a managerial merry-go-round this summer." By securing him before the World Cup, the FA removes a layer of speculation that could otherwise become a sideshow during the tournament itself.

Tuchel himself acknowledged this dynamic, describing the clarity provided by the new deal as a welcome "side-effect", though he was careful to insist it was not the primary motivation. He described the process as mutual, committed and free of any games or second thoughts.

The Case For: Stability, Continuity and a Once-in-a-Generation Opportunity

From the FA's perspective, the logic is compelling. Here is the strongest case for offering the extension now.

1. The Qualifying Record Speaks for Itself

England's World Cup qualifying campaign under Tuchel was exceptional by any measure. Eight matches, eight victories, twenty goals scored, zero conceded. It was the kind of dominant, serene progress that suggested a coach in complete control of his group tactically organised, defensively disciplined and with clear attacking patterns.

Yes, the group was not the most demanding Albania, Serbia, Latvia and Andorra do not represent the summit of international football. And yes, England have traditionally breezed through qualifying stages regardless of who is in charge. But the manner of the performances particularly the emphatic 5-0 away victories in Serbia and Latvia suggested genuine improvements in structure and intensity compared to the final days of the Southgate era.

For coaches, the qualifying campaign offered evidence of clear tactical principles being implemented: a more aggressive pressing structure, improved build-up patterns and a willingness to rotate and integrate younger players without sacrificing results. These are markers of a coaching set-up that is functioning well.

2. Removing the Distraction

The FA learned a painful lesson during Gareth Southgate's final tournament. Before Euro 2024, Southgate was offered a new contract but declined to sign it, partly because he had seen what happened when Capello accepted a similar pre-tournament extension in 2010. But Southgate's decision not to commit created a different kind of distraction: constant media speculation about whether he would stay or go, regardless of results.

By securing Tuchel now, the FA eliminates that narrative entirely. There will be no questions in press conferences about his future. No transfer rumours linking him to club vacancies. No speculation about whether a poor group-stage result might accelerate his departure. The focus can be entirely on the football.

For any coach who has operated in a high-pressure environment, the value of this clarity should not be underestimated. Players, staff and the wider organisation all benefit from knowing the direction of travel is settled.

3. Euro 2028 Is a Generational Opportunity

Perhaps the most persuasive argument is what comes after the World Cup. Euro 2028 will be co-hosted by the United Kingdom and Ireland, with the final at Wembley. For English football, this is a once-in-a-generation opportunity, the first major home tournament since Euro '96.

The FA's view is that continuity of coaching is essential to maximise England's chances in 2028. A new head coach would need time to implement their ideas, build relationships with the squad and establish their authority. By extending Tuchel now, the FA ensures that the man leading England at the home Euros will have had over three years of work with the group, an unusually long runway by international football standards.

From a coaching perspective, this is sound thinking. The evidence consistently shows that international managers need two to three competitive cycles to fully embed their ideas and build the squad depth required to compete at the highest level. Tuchel would arrive at Euro 2028 with the World Cup, a Nations League campaign and a qualifying cycle behind him. That is an enormous advantage.

4. Tuchel's Pedigree Justifies the Commitment

The FA's assessment, articulated bluntly by Bullingham, is that there is "simply no better candidate available in world football." While that claim is always debatable, Tuchel's credentials are formidable. A Champions League title with Chelsea. Ligue 1 titles with PSG. A Bundesliga title with Bayern Munich. He is a coach who has consistently competed at the highest level and has proven he can win trophies in elite environments.

His adaptation to international football has also been impressive. Tuchel acknowledged that moving from the daily rhythm of club management to the compressed windows of international football was a "step into the unknown." But he has embraced it, and by his own account, the September-to-November qualifying window was when he felt the strongest connection to the players and the role. The FA clearly believes he has made the transition successfully and sees no reason to risk losing him.

The Case Against: Premature, Unjudged and Historically Risky

For all the logical arguments in favour, there are significant reasons to question whether this was the right call, particularly at this moment.

1. The Capello Precedent

This is the elephant in the room, and no amount of FA spin can make it disappear.

Before the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, the FA gave Fabio Capello a new contract. Like Tuchel, Capello had enjoyed a smooth qualifying campaign. Like Tuchel, there was interest from European clubs, Inter Milan in particular and the FA wanted to remove distractions. The extension was presented as a statement of confidence and continuity.

England then had one of the worst World Cup campaigns in their history, exiting in the round of sixteen after a humiliating 4-1 defeat to Germany. Capello limped on for another 18 months, his authority hollowed out, before eventually resigning in February 2012 over the FA's decision to strip John Terry of the captaincy.

Southgate was acutely aware of this precedent. When offered his own pre-tournament extension before Euro 2024, he declined specifically because of the Capello example. As he later explained on the High Performance Podcast, he feared that signing a new deal before the tournament would create tension and increase pressure on the team.

The FA insists lessons have been learned. Bullingham confirmed that "performance conditions" exist in Tuchel's contract, though he declined to reveal whether there is a post-World Cup break clause. But the fact that this question even needs to be asked illustrates the risk. If England perform poorly this summer an early knockout-round exit, a limp group-stage display the FA will face immediate pressure to explain why it committed to Tuchel before his first competitive test in a major tournament.

2. Tuchel Has Not Been Truly Tested Yet

This is the most important point, and the one that should give coaches pause.

Qualifying campaigns, for all their importance, are not where international managers are judged. England have qualified for every major tournament since 2010 regardless of who was in charge. The test that matters, the only test that truly matters is performance at the tournament itself: how the team functions under the pressure of knockout football, how the coach adapts tactically when facing elite opposition, how the group responds when things go wrong.

Tuchel has not yet faced any of these challenges with England.

His competitive record consists entirely of home and away matches against Albania, Serbia, Latvia and Andorra. The friendly programme has been mixed a laboured 1-0 win against Andorra and a concerning 3-1 home defeat to Senegal in June 2025 sit alongside the more encouraging later results.

Until England face Croatia in Arlington, Texas on 17 June, the FA genuinely does not know how Tuchel will perform when it counts. They do not know how he will handle the intensity of a World Cup group stage, the tactical chess of a knockout round, or the emotional weight of a semi-final or final. They are committing to a coach through to 2028 on the basis of evidence that, while positive, is fundamentally incomplete.

3. The Bellingham Question and Squad Dynamics

Tuchel's tenure has not been entirely smooth. His relationship with Jude Bellingham, arguably England's most important player has been strained at times. The omission of Trent Alexander-Arnold from several squads has also raised eyebrows.

These are not trivial issues. International management is, above all, a man-management challenge. You have limited training time, limited tactical preparation windows and a group of elite players who spend the vast majority of their careers under the authority of their club coaches. Winning their trust, buy-in and full commitment is the single most important task for any international manager.

If the Bellingham dynamic remains unresolved, or if other squad tensions emerge during the pressure cooker of a World Cup, the new contract could become an albatross. It is far harder to part ways with a coach who has just signed a two-year extension than one whose deal was naturally expiring.

4. It Reduces the FA's Flexibility

By extending Tuchel now, the FA has significantly narrowed its options. If the World Cup goes badly, the FA faces an awkward choice: pay Tuchel to leave, potentially an expensive exercise given his contract value or persist with a coach who may have been exposed on the biggest stage. Neither is ideal.

Had the FA allowed the original deal to run its course, a natural decision point would have presented itself after the World Cup. If Tuchel performed well, he could have been re-signed from a position of proven success. If he underperformed, both parties could have walked away cleanly. That flexibility has now been traded for pre-tournament stability, a trade-off that may look wise or reckless depending entirely on what happens in June and July.

What History Tells Us

The broader historical picture is instructive for coaches at every level.

England's approach to managerial contracts has swung between extremes. Southgate's cautious refusal to commit pre-tournament was, in many ways, a reaction to the Capello debacle. Now, the FA has swung back the other way, committing to Tuchel before the tournament in the name of clarity and continuity.

The truth is that neither approach guarantees success. Bobby Robson's deal was expiring at Italia '90, and England came within a penalty shootout of reaching the final. Terry Venables knew before Euro '96 that Glenn Hoddle had already been named as his successor, yet led England to a semi-final on home soil with some of the most exciting football the country has ever produced. Conversely, Capello's pre-tournament security did nothing to prevent disaster in 2010.

What matters far more than contractual arrangements is what happens on the pitch: the tactical preparation, the squad selection, the in-game management and the psychological resilience of the group under pressure. These are the factors that determine tournament success, not the date on the bottom of a contract.

The Coaching Takeaway

For coaches watching this unfold, there are several broader lessons.

Contractual security and performance are not the same thing. As one analyst noted, managerial contracts in football rarely mean anything tangible. Vitor Pereira signed a three-year deal at Wolves in September and was sacked within two months. David Moyes' six-year contract at Manchester United barely lasted a season. The extension gives Tuchel security, but it does not guarantee results.

The pressure of a pre-tournament commitment is real. Southgate understood this instinctively. When a coach has already been rewarded before the test, the public and media scrutiny intensifies. Every poor performance is viewed through the lens of whether the extension was deserved. This is a psychological burden that coaches need to be prepared for.

Stability has genuine value but only if the foundations are right. The FA's argument about continuity into Euro 2028 is sound in principle. But continuity for its own sake is worthless if the coaching approach is not working. The World Cup will be the definitive assessment of whether Tuchel's methods translate to tournament football. Everything before it has been prologue.

The best coaches thrive regardless of contractual situation. Tuchel himself has operated under enormous pressure at every club he has managed from the political minefield of PSG to the chaos of Chelsea under Todd Boehly to the expectations of Bayern Munich. If he is the world-class coach the FA believes him to be, the contract extension should be irrelevant. The work on the training ground and the performances on the pitch are all that will matter when the whistle blows in Texas.

Verdict

The FA's decision to extend Tuchel's contract is understandable, defensible and strategically logical. The managerial market this summer was always going to create enormous temptation, and the prospect of a home European Championship in 2028 makes continuity genuinely valuable. Tuchel's qualifying record, his growing connection to the role and the mutual alignment between coach and federation all point towards a decision that makes sense, on paper at least.

But it remains, as one Athletic writer put it, a risk. Not a reckless one, but a real one. Tuchel has not yet been tested in the environment that defines international coaching careers. England's qualifying record, however impressive, tells us relatively little about how they will perform under the lights of a World Cup knockout round. And the Capello precedent however much the FA insists lessons have been learned, hangs over this decision like a shadow.

The answer to whether this contract was the right call will not come in a press conference in Brussels. It will come on the pitches of North America this June and July. That is when we and the FA will find out whether Thomas Tuchel deserved the commitment, or whether English football has made the same mistake twice.